Wimbledon 2014: Rafael Nadal v Mikhail Kukushkin

Rafa Nadal won the first of his two Wimbledon titles in 2008, in the same year as I was the junior champion. But he made us all wait at the champions’ ball because he defeated Roger Federer in a rain-interrupted match 6-4 6-4 6-7 (5-7) 6-7 (8-10) 9-7 which finished at nearly 10pm. We ended up having our main course at about 1am, when no one was hungry.
He has rather an appetite for tough matches, if not food, and he showed his never-say-die attitude against Lukáš Rosol on Thursday. The Czech won when they last played at Wimbledon two years ago, in the same round. It was a huge shock as he was then ranked 100 in the world and it was his first time at the Championships. This week there was certainly no love lost from that match; there was a lot of shoulder bumping and Rafa definitely didn’t look happy. He was really pumped for it this time because of that and, despite winning his ninth French Open earlier in June, he still had to come from a set behind to succeed.
In Saturday’s third-round game against Mikhail Kukushkin, who has never before reached this stage at Wimbledon, should be more straightforward. I have seen the Kazak play a few times and it doesn’t look like he has a stand-out shot. Having said that, the 26-year-old has made it through this far, having won in straight sets in the first two rounds – which is more than Rafa can say – so I am sure his Spanish opponent will respect that. He knows, especially with what happened two years ago with Rosol, anything can happen. Kukushkin might pull something out of the bag and that is what is so exciting about Wimbledon.
Kukushkin says that hard courts are his favourite surface, and there is not much difference when playing on grass – especially as they have slowed down significantly in the last 10 years. He will have to try and be attacking against Rafa, serve well and try and get on top of the point early on. In the only two times they have met previously Nadal has won in straight sets – first on the hard courts of Bangkok four years ago (6-2 6-3) and then, in 2012, at Monte Carlo, where clay king Rafa is unplayable, it was 6-1 6-1.
Rafa's key weapon against Kukushkin, according to IBM SlamTracker, will be his domination in the four-to-nine-shot rallies. When the Spaniard wins 55 per cent or more of those clashes he has won 88 per cent of the 657 sets analysed. Rafa’s movement is definitely one of his strengths. One of my favourite things is watching him run, on a slow-motion replay, for a drop shot (and it’s not just because of his rippling muscles). He runs like a proper sprinter, and puts his head down and legs it without really looking at where the ball is going, as he is just concentrating on getting there. He should be able to boss that area of the game against Kukushkin.
His opponent, meanwhile, has won 67 per cent of his sets when he has won 68 points on his first serve. Additionally, when he has succeeded in claiming at least 27 per cent of first-serve return points he has notched up 63 per cent of his sets. It's going to be tough to hit those targets, though. Rafa returns the ball pretty hard, and he has improved his backhand out of sight. That used to be his weakness, especially on his return, but now he is nailing that.
I think that Rafa is the best player there has ever been on clay and I would say that Roger is up there as the best on grass. What is so great about today’s game in the men’s competition is that there are so many different styles and regardless of the surface they will probably make it to the last four. Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic are included in that group too, of course. I expect that after his early scare against Rosol Rafa will not slip up again on Saturday.